Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin Soars Above $63K: The cryptocurrency kicked off the second half of 2024 with a strong rally, breaking past the $60,000 resistance level.
Spot ETF Inflows Surge: Investor confidence is returning, as evidenced by the highest daily net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs in two weeks.
Seasonality Favors Bitcoin: Historically, July boasts a median return of 9.6% for Bitcoin, particularly following negative Junes like this year’s.
Related: Ethereum ETF Nears Approval as SEC Requests Final Filings by July 8
Bitcoin is already roaring high in the second half of 2024 after briefly dipping below the $60,000 psychological level. The recent uptick in BTC price to $63,700 coupled with the recent developments and historical data suggests that the second half of 2024 could be bullish.
Bitcoin Sets the Stage for Bullish H2
The bullish uptick in Bitcoin price aligns with the increasing spot ETF inflows, with a net inflow of $73 million last Friday, the highest daily inflow in two weeks.
QCP Capital is optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects in July, citing historical seasonality data.
“Looking at seasonality, BTC has a median return of 9.6% in July and tends to bounce back strongly especially after a negative June (-9.85%).”
QCP Capital further added that the options market activity also points to increasing bets on an upside move ahead of the anticipated launch of an spot Ethereum ETF. Since the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sent back the S-1 for refiling on July 8, many believe that the first spot Ethereum ETF will being trading by the end of July. These factors, combined with the recent price action, suggest that Bitcoin is poised for a bullish July.
“Bitcoin will remain in a longer-term bullish trend as long as it holds above its 50-week EMA,” said Forex.com’s recent article. “… [A] confirmed break above $70K could set the stage for a run towards $100K.”
CNBC’s take is that the ETH/BTC ratio could continue to spiral down and potentially range between 0.035 and 0.06 in the weeks following the launch of spot Ethereum ETF owing to the ETF-based selling pressure.
As of July 1, Bitcoin trades at $63,360 and eyes a retest of the $65,000 level.
