Trump’s Odds Reach New High of 66% on Polymarket Ahead of 2024 Election
Key Takeaways:
- Former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election have surged to 66% on Polymarket.
- This significant rise in Trump’s odds follows recent campaign events and debates.
- President Joe Biden’s odds stand at 28%, while Gavin Newsom and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. trail behind with 4% and 1%, respectively.
- Polymarket allows users to bet on real-world event outcomes using cryptocurrency, relying on major news sources to resolve bets.
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Trump’s Odds Reach All-time High
According to the latest data from Polymarket, former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election have skyrocketed to 66%. This is a remarkable jump from his previous odds of 10% on May 20, 15% on May 30, and 38% on June 27. This surge in confidence comes in the wake of recent debates and campaign activities.
.@Polymarket Post-Debate Odds: Presidential Election Winner
🟥 Trump: 66% (new high)
🟦 Biden: 28%
🟦 Newsom: 4%
🟨 RFK Jr: 1%
—
Trends
• May 20: Trump +10
• May 30: Trump +15
• June 27: Trump +38https://t.co/kjkMVHlCVx https://t.co/hOPD4BJxcV pic.twitter.com/Iqz0Xb7msI— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 28, 2024
In contrast, current President Joe Biden’s odds on Polymarket are at 28%. Other contenders, such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are far behind, with odds of 4% and 1%, respectively.
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform where users can bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency. The platform’s markets are based on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calling the race for a candidate. If these sources haven’t declared a winner by Inauguration Day 2025, the market resolves based on who is sworn in as president.
Despite Trump’s rising odds, Biden is still favored to win the popular vote according to CoinDesk’s analysis of Polymarket data. However, this analysis suggests that Biden is less likely to secure the Electoral College victory necessary to win the presidency.
Presidential Election Impact on Stock & Crypto Markets
Presidential elections tend to slightly lower stock market returns compared to non-election years, though the difference isn’t statistically significant. Historically, a strong equity performance leading up to an election favors the incumbent party. In the year following an election, stock markets have performed better under Democratic presidents compared to Republican ones, though other factors likely influence this trend.
Election years typically bring higher market volatility, but this tends to stabilize if the incumbent party retains power. Overall, long-term stock market performance is more influenced by economic conditions and fundamentals than the election outcome itself.
The crypto industry has become increasingly politically active, investing heavily to influence Congressional elections and advocate for favorable regulations. Crypto-holding voters often support Donald Trump, though the industry is divided on whether his presidency would benefit the sector. While Trump’s stance on crypto has softened, he remains less favorable than other Republican candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy, who push for clearer regulations.
The crypto industry hopes that a more informed group of lawmakers, regardless of party, will establish a robust regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.
Conclusion
U.S. presidential elections can introduce short-term volatility in both stock and crypto markets, but long-term performance is more closely tied to broader economic conditions and fundamentals. The crypto industry’s growing political influence underscores its efforts to shape a favorable regulatory environment. Prediction markets like Polymarket provide interesting insights, but their accuracy is subject to change as new factors emerge. With over a year until Election Day, the political landscape is expected to evolve further.
